Pre-tourney Rankings
Big West
2011-12


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
39 Long Beach St. 100.0%   13   23 - 8 15 - 1 23 - 8 15 - 1 +10.0      +5.7 42 +4.3 61 69.1 128 +10.0 40 +12.4 1
110 UC Santa Barbara 0.0%   18 - 10 12 - 4 18 - 10 12 - 4 +4.1      +4.5 59 -0.4 180 65.0 235 +3.8 115 +3.9 3
163 Cal St. Fullerton 0.0%   19 - 9 12 - 4 19 - 9 12 - 4 +0.4      +4.0 67 -3.7 276 73.4 49 +0.9 157 +4.6 2
172 Cal Poly 0.0%   16 - 15 8 - 8 16 - 15 8 - 8 -0.3      +1.0 143 -1.3 213 56.3 338 -2.2 200 -3.4 4
241 UC Irvine 0.0%   10 - 19 6 - 10 10 - 19 6 - 10 -4.6      -3.3 265 -1.3 212 75.9 27 -5.2 249 -6.5 7
268 UC Riverside 0.0%   12 - 17 7 - 9 12 - 17 7 - 9 -6.2      -8.5 329 +2.3 108 62.6 277 -3.6 227 -4.3 5
271 Pacific 0.0%   9 - 19 6 - 10 9 - 19 6 - 10 -6.3      -2.6 244 -3.6 275 59.9 317 -7.0 276 -6.2 6
305 Cal St. Northridge 0.0%   5 - 21 3 - 13 5 - 21 3 - 13 -9.7      -2.9 248 -6.8 330 74.0 41 -10.8 313 -12.1 9
322 UC Davis 0.0%   4 - 26 3 - 13 4 - 26 3 - 13 -12.3      -5.9 299 -6.5 325 67.4 169 -14.2 325 -11.5 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
Long Beach St. 1.0 100.0
UC Santa Barbara 2.0 100.0
Cal St. Fullerton 2.0 100.0
Cal Poly 4.0 100.0
UC Irvine 6.0 100.0
UC Riverside 5.0 100.0
Pacific 6.0 100.0
Cal St. Northridge 8.0 100.0
UC Davis 8.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Long Beach St. 15 - 1 100.0
UC Santa Barbara 12 - 4 100.0
Cal St. Fullerton 12 - 4 100.0
Cal Poly 8 - 8 100.0
UC Irvine 6 - 10 100.0
UC Riverside 7 - 9 100.0
Pacific 6 - 10 100.0
Cal St. Northridge 3 - 13 100.0
UC Davis 3 - 13 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Long Beach St. 100.0% 100.0
UC Santa Barbara
Cal St. Fullerton
Cal Poly
UC Irvine
UC Riverside
Pacific
Cal St. Northridge
UC Davis


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Long Beach St. 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 13   0.0 0.3 1.4 10.5 27.4 47.6 12.7 0.0
UC Santa Barbara 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Cal Poly 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
UC Irvine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
UC Riverside 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Pacific 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
UC Davis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Long Beach St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 35.9% 15.3% 4.2% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1%
UC Santa Barbara 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal Poly 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Irvine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Riverside 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pacific 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Davis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.0 100.0
2nd Round 35.9% 0.4 64.1 35.9
Sweet Sixteen 15.3% 0.2 84.7 15.3
Elite Eight 4.2% 0.0 95.8 4.2
Final Four 1.3% 0.0 98.7 1.3
Final Game 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Champion 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1